Commercial Property Renewal Index
Property rates are softening.
About −7.5% at Q4 2026 renewals.
80% range −13% to −2%. Q3 2026 estimated at −7.3%, pending CIAB Q3 results.
Catastrophe losses are benign: no $10bn+ US insured event in 21 months. See the history
General liability and umbrella and excess show current CIAB rates and drivers; backtests didn't beat a no-change forecast, so no forecast is shown.
Industry Profitability
Insurers just posted their best underwriting year since 2006.
Industry combined ratio 92.9 in 2025, 92.7 in the first half of 2026. Below 100 is an underwriting profit.
Strong underwriting profits and record capital leave carriers room to compete on price, which is the backdrop for softer property rates. This is context only. It is not an input to the renewal index estimate.
Premiums across all account sizes fell 2.0% in Q2 2026, the second straight quarterly decline. Q1 2026 was the first decline since 2017, per CIAB.
H1 2026: combined ratio 92.7, underwriting profit (six months).
Net combined ratio after policyholder dividends for all private US P&C insurers, including mortgage and financial guaranty insurers, as first published each year (later restatements move a year by up to 0.3 points). Other publishers, such as AM Best and S&P Global Market Intelligence, use different scopes and print different levels. 2006–2014 come from the Triple-I table of ISO results, which excludes state funds. 2026 is the first six months. Sources: 2006–2014 (iii.org), 2015 (verisk.com), 2016 (iii.org), 2017 (iii.org), 2018, 2019 (verisk.com), 2020 (verisk.com), 2021 (verisk.com), 2022 (verisk.com), 2023 (verisk.com), 2024 (verisk.com), 2025 (verisk.com), 2026 H1 (verisk.com). Premium change: CIAB P&C Market Survey (alt.ciab.com).
Line Detail
Property renewals have been softening for 4 straight quarters.
Property, renewal rate change
Indicative estimate: a statistical estimate from the drivers that helped in backtests, not a firm prediction.
- Softeningbelow 0%
- Flat to modest0% to 5%
- Firming5% to 10%
- Hardening10% and up
Show data
| Quarter | CIAB renewal change |
|---|---|
| 2019Q1 | +5.9% |
| 2019Q2 | +8.5% |
| 2019Q3 | +8.8% |
| 2019Q4 | +9.7% |
| 2020Q1 | +12.0% |
| 2020Q2 | +13.3% |
| 2020Q3 | +14.2% |
| 2020Q4 | +12.9% |
| 2021Q1 | +12.0% |
| 2021Q2 | +9.9% |
| 2021Q3 | +10.3% |
| 2021Q4 | +10.5% |
| 2022Q1 | +8.6% |
| 2022Q2 | +8.3% |
| 2022Q3 | +11.2% |
| 2022Q4 | +16.0% |
| 2023Q1 | +20.4% |
| 2023Q2 | +18.3% |
| 2023Q3 | +17.1% |
| 2023Q4 | +11.8% |
| 2024Q1 | +10.1% |
| 2024Q2 | +8.9% |
| 2024Q3 | +7.9% |
| 2024Q4 | +6.0% |
| 2025Q1 | +2.9% |
| 2025Q2 | +1.9% |
| 2025Q3 | −0.2% |
| 2025Q4 | −0.7% |
| 2026Q1 | −5.5% |
| 2026Q2 | −6.3% |
| 2026Q3 (forecast) | −7.3% (−10% to −4%) |
| 2026Q4 (forecast) | −7.5% (−13% to −2%) |
The cat bond spread over expected loss is the biggest downward push on property rates.
What's pushing it
| Driver | Latest | A year earlier | Trend | Push on rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cat bond spread over expected loss Artemis quarterly ILS reports, Plenum Investments | 3.74% | 4.93% | ||
| Insured cat losses vs normal (index) Z-score blend of carrier cat losses / earned premium (SEC filings), Munich Re NatCatSERVICE and Swiss Re Institute, each vs its 10-year average | -0.54 | 0.89 | ||
| Construction input prices, YoY BLS PPI via FRED | 7.9% | 1.5% |
Cat bond spread over expected loss
Artemis quarterly ILS reports, Plenum Investments
Insured cat losses vs normal (index)
Z-score blend of carrier cat losses / earned premium (SEC filings), Munich Re NatCatSERVICE and Swiss Re Institute, each vs its 10-year average
Construction input prices, YoY
BLS PPI via FRED
Quarterly Read
Get the next read when it changes.
One email per quarter, with the data behind it.
ALRenewalIndex is an independent data project and does not sell insurance.
How This Works
Drivers, one pressure index.
An 80% range on the property estimate.
Each driver is scored against its own history since 2019, weighted by line, and combined into a pressure index. For property, next quarter's CIAB renewal rate change is estimated from that index (cat bond spreads, catastrophe losses, construction prices) and the current quarter's CIAB rate; the range is an 80% interval. In backtests our drivers have not beaten a no-change forecast for general liability or umbrella and excess, so those lines show the current CIAB rate and driver context only.
Sources: CIAB Commercial P&C Market Survey, Artemis, Munich Re NatCatSERVICE, NOAA Storm Events, WSIA stamping offices, BLS via FRED, Marathon Strategies, and The Hartford and CNA SEC filings.
The property figure is an indicative statistical estimate from historical market data, not a quote, rate indication, or coverage recommendation. Actual renewal outcomes depend on your own loss history, exposures, and underwriting, and can differ from the market-wide trend shown here. General liability and umbrella and excess are shown for context only and are not forecast.